The Chronicles of Rishi

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I'm struggling on the 'gave £5m to the Conservatives and unexpectedly received a knighthood' bit. That's as unexpected as me putting £2 in the KitKat vending machine and getting a KitKat.

£2 for a Kit Kat ?????? Is it a four bar chunky one or something ?

Tories to hold under 100 seats to Labour’s 468, says exclusive poll

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0...64a11da815a37c

The seat-by-seat analysis shows Tory prospects have hit a new record low and they are on track for their worst election result, winning fewer than 100 seats. Labour would win 468, giving Sir Keir Starmer’s party a whopping 286-seat majority.

The 15,000-person MRP poll, conducted by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain, puts Labour on 45 per cent of the vote share with a 19-point lead over the Conservatives, up three points from the campaign group’s previous poll at the end of last year. The Tories are on track to win just 98 seats, with none in Scotland or Wales.

The forecast even suggests the prime minister is at risk of losing his own constituency, the new Richmond & Northallerton seat, to Labour, with his lead less than 2.5 percentage points. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, has a one-point lead over the Liberal Democrats in his new seat of Godalming & Ash.

15,000 is a big opinion poll. Presumably this has allowed them to do some decent regional modelling rather than assuming a uniform swing. Whatever methodology they’ve used is predicting the SNP will do less badly than some polls have suggested recently.

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by Chris

Whatever methodology they’ve used is predicting the SNP will do less badly than some polls have suggested recently.

If things get much worse for the Conservatives, the SNP could become the official opposition

Originally Posted by Chris

15,000 is a big opinion poll. Presumably this has allowed them to do some decent regional modelling rather than assuming a uniform swing. Whatever methodology they’ve used is predicting the SNP will do less badly than some polls have suggested recently.

I thought there might be something for Reform in the poll, but (so far) can’t find the source data…

Update - found it.

https://www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-polling

REFORM UK

The Labour Party have had a significant lead across all three of Best for Britain’s most recent MRP publications in May 2022; December 2022; May 2023 - but none as dismal as this for Sunak’s party. This latest downturn for the Conservatives can be almost entirely attributed to the impact of Reform UK.

In the majority of seats across the country, Reform UK have increased their vote share significantly compared to the last MRP fielded by Survation in December 2023. Mostly this comes at the expense of the Conservatives, so much so that Reform UK have become the second largest party in seven seats.

Although they command 8.5% of the national vote share, in 207 seats their vote share is above 10%, and in 47 seats their vote share is over 15%. With this level of support, if they stand down their candidates as UKIP did in 2017, and the Brexit Party (Reform UK’s previous name), did in 2019, Reform UK could significantly boost the Conservative seat haul.

https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content...024-03-28.xlsx

Some interesting forecast results…

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

15,000 is a big opinion poll. Presumably this has allowed them to do some decent regional modelling rather than assuming a uniform swing. Whatever methodology they’ve used is predicting the SNP will do less badly than some polls have suggested recently.

I think there's too much going on to reliably predict what happens in Scotland. The SNP lead in many seats is precarious, but Labour broadly doesn't inspire. You'd forget given the generous coverage Labour's branch office get on BBC Scotland that in the Scottish Parliament Douglas Ross leads the official opposition.

The swing from Conservative to Labour could hand the SNP seats in one hand and take them away with the other.

Separately what's interesting in the polls see the Lib Dems going nowhere.

[Pierre]

Too close to call for many, lots seats will be won or lost on the toss of a coin.

[1andrew1]

Looks like they will be One Nation Conservatives if they fail to return any MPs except in England.

[Pierre]

I’m happy the Tory’s have imploded, it’s just a crying shame it’s Labour that benefits.

Either an actual Conservative Party rises from the ashes, or we need a new centre right party.

Reform isn’t it.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Pierre

I’m happy the Tory’s have imploded, it’s just a crying shame it’s Labour that benefits.

Either an actual Conservative Party rises from the ashes, or we need a new centre right party.

Reform isn’t it.

The country has had enough of the right wing, looking after the select few at the expense of most others. The Brexit shambles, has driven the country into the ground, made most poorer - there's only one party to blame.

[jfman]

Starmer is leading a centre-right party. I'm not sure a single policy stands from the 2016 or 2019 manifesto. Nor do I think any substantive policies stand from his leadership campaign.

He's firmly putting it out there that Labour are just a caretaker for the same flawed macroeconomics that have decimated our industrial towns and cities.

British people are just another asset for the globalised economy to extract wealth from. Whether you turn on the taps, switch on the lights or commute to work - money is leaving this country hand over fist in dividends for running our public services.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Mr K

The country has had enough of the right wing, looking after the select few at the expense of most others. The Brexit shambles, has driven the country into the ground, made most poorer - there's only one party to blame.

It's not just brexit although that was bad enough, it's austerity that drove our services through the floor under the guise of paying our debts of only to find we are more in debt than ever before and that was pre covid where they enabled chums to rape the backside out of the country and you know the stupidest thing of all, there's over 20% of the country that want them to carry on, are they sadists, I wouldn't trust them to run a bath and it's no wonder with all the shit in the water, another of their gifts to the country

[daveeb]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

It's not just brexit although that was bad enough, it's austerity that drove our services through the floor under the guise of paying our debts of only to find we are more in debt than ever before and that was pre covid where they enabled chums to rape the backside out of the country and you know the stupidest thing of all, there's over 20% of the country that want them to carry on, are they sadists, I wouldn't trust them to run a bath and it's no wonder with all the shit in the water, another of their gifts to the country

Correct, the last 14 years have been a shitshow, literally as far as our waterways are concerned and metaphorically with everything else they've had anything to do with. Can't wait to see the back of this corrupt incompetent gang of self serving chancers.

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by daveeb

Correct, the last 14 years have been a shitshow, literally as far as our waterways are concerned and metaphorically with everything else they've had anything to do with. Can't wait to see the back of this corrupt incompetent gang of self serving chancers.

Be careful what you wish for.

Yes, they're bad but it could get much worse.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Be careful what you wish for.

Yes, they're bad but it could get much worse.

It's not a great election slogan, "vote for us, as anyone else must be worse". Might as well not have elections, or go to Russia, if there can only be one ruling party.