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Disaster for Merkel?
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Old 24-09-2017, 19:05   #1
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Disaster for Merkel?

Merkel's taken her party to her worst ever election result and the far right AfD party has done far better than expected. I wonder if they'll still be ignored...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-41367497

What does this say about the future of Germany and indeed the EU?
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Old 24-09-2017, 19:11   #2
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Re: Disaster for Merkel?

Careful not to read too much into it. She is now in her fourth term and to be ‘only’ that far ahead isn’t so bad. 6 months to a year ago the whole buzz was that the SDP were going to win.

It’s probably worst for the SDP who, despite the initial momentum and all the troubles Merkel had, were unable to make up much ground.

Last edited by Damien; 24-09-2017 at 19:16.
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Old 24-09-2017, 19:12   #3
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Re: Disaster for Merkel?

Merkel will pay lip-service to the right whilst continuing her own destructive policies.

The left will attack the right about any second now... expect tears, blood and fire.
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Old 24-09-2017, 19:27   #4
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Re: Disaster for Merkel?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien View Post
Careful not to read too much into it. She is now in her fourth term and to be ‘only’ that far ahead isn’t so bad. 6 months to a year ago the whole buzz was that the SDP were going to win.

It’s probably worst for the SDP who, despite the initial momentum and all the troubles Merkel had, were unable to make up much ground.
Lots of commentators saying this is very dramatic result and probably eye watering given that a far right party is heading back to the German Parliament for the first time, since World War II.
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Old 24-09-2017, 20:05   #5
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Re: Disaster for Merkel?

They've been in denial about the rise of right wing extremism for years and still are. She'll do what Blair did and claim to be listening but will carry on regardless because just like him, she believes she knows best. There will be a backlash to what's been going on and it's already started. Macron's victory in France hasn't altered that.

I'm sad to say it but I think dangerous times lie ahead in the EU and I'm glad we'll be out of it even though that won't protect the UK from all the fallout.
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Old 24-09-2017, 20:43   #6
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Re: Disaster for Merkel?

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Originally Posted by Mick View Post
Lots of commentators saying this is very dramatic result and probably eye watering given that a far right party is heading back to the German Parliament for the first time, since World War II.
It is but people have been expecting this for a while. Relative to 3/4/5 years ago this is a shock result. Relative to a year ago not so much. I am not saying it's a great result for Merkel or a bad result for the far-right but these same commentators were predicting the end of Merkel's leadership not that long ago.

---------- Post added at 20:43 ---------- Previous post was at 20:36 ----------

I think 'not read too much into it' was probably the wrong way to phrase it. Better to say to keep it into perspective.
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Old 24-09-2017, 20:48   #7
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Re: Disaster for Merkel?

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Originally Posted by Damien View Post
It is but people have been expecting this for a while. Relative to 3/4/5 years ago this is a shock result. Relative to a year ago not so much. I am not saying it's a great result for Merkel or a bad result for the far-right but these same commentators were predicting the end of Merkel's leadership not that long ago.

---------- Post added at 20:43 ---------- Previous post was at 20:36 ----------

I think 'not read too much into it' was probably the wrong way to phrase it. Better to say to keep it into perspective.
It's not just about the end of Merkel though is it. She has to go sometime. It's about who replaces her and how extreme they might be as a result of the lip service which has been paid to an awful lot of people's sincere and justified concerns.

There's talk about an official parliamentary investigation being launched into Merkel's migration decision not being entirely legal. That might be interesting.
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Old 24-09-2017, 21:00   #8
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Re: Disaster for Merkel?

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Originally Posted by Osem View Post
It's not just about the end of Merkel though is it. She has to go sometime. It's about who replaces her and how extreme they might be as a result of the lip service which has been paid to an awful lot of people's sincere and justified concerns.

There's talk about an official parliamentary investigation being launched into Merkel's migration decision not being entirely legal. That might be interesting.
I think this is probably Merkel's last term. She can't go on forever.

The AfD is a worrying result but given the material they've had to work with in the migration crisis and Eurozone ballouts it's hard to imagine a better election cycle for them than this one.

I am placing this from the perspective of how we thought this could play out at the start of the year. Macron willing in France, Merkel winning in Germany, Italy not bringing down the EU and even the far right falling short in Holland and Austria are a far cry of the worst fears people had of 2017.

Not to say there aren't serious issues to be addressed but everything is looking more stable than 9 months ago. The election probably serves as a warning the issues aren't gone but the commentators acting as if this is earth-shattering should look at their articles at the tail-end of last year.
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Old 24-09-2017, 21:04   #9
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Re: Disaster for Merkel?

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Originally Posted by Damien View Post
I think this is probably Merkel's last term. She can't go on forever.

The AfD is a worrying result but given the material they've had to work with in the migration crisis and Eurozone ballouts it's hard to imagine a better election cycle for them than this one.

I am placing this from the perspective of how we thought this could play out at the start of the year. Macron willing in France, Merkel winning in Germany, Italy not bringing down the EU and even the far right falling short in Holland and Austria are a far cry of the worst fears people had of 2017.

Not to say there aren't serious issues to be addressed but everything is looking more stable than 9 months ago. The election probably serves as a warning the issues aren't gone but the commentators acting as if this is earth-shattering should look at their articles at the tail-end of last year.
That'll depend on what happens about the migration crisis. It hasn't gone away and even though the numbers are down the legacy of dealing with it all is going to be felt for years in many EU countries. It was an astonishingly arrogant and dangerous thing to do.
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Old 24-09-2017, 21:10   #10
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Re: Disaster for Merkel?

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There's talk about an official parliamentary investigation being launched into Merkel's migration decision not being entirely legal. That might be interesting.
Sounds absolutely fascinating Must set the TiVo....
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Old 24-09-2017, 23:24   #11
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Re: Disaster for Merkel?

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Sounds absolutely fascinating Must set the TiVo....
lol, won't it be auto-recorded for you by Tivo suggestions?
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Old 25-09-2017, 02:05   #12
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Re: Disaster for Merkel?

With the recent problems within the german military they definately need to do something about the growing far right sentiments that more and more germans seem to have.
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Old 25-09-2017, 05:32   #13
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Re: Disaster for Merkel?

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With the recent problems within the german military they definately need to do something about the growing far right sentiments that more and more germans seem to have.
Remember that old saying of history often repeats itself as one hopes we never slide down that road ever again in our lifetimes.
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Old 25-09-2017, 07:45   #14
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Re: Disaster for Merkel?

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Remember that old saying of history often repeats itself as one hopes we never slide down that road ever again in our lifetimes.
I recall making that point here a few years ago and I still think a great many people don't believe it can happen again which is in itself a dangerous situation. Sadly, it most definitely can and the fact that it's been simmering away under the surface since the end of WWII escapes an increasing number of people whose lives weren't touched by those terrible events and who seem to be almost in denial about the possibility of WWIII.

For the most part it's our politicians who're in many cases letting their short term political ambitions and insatiable egos get in the way of acknowledging what's going on in front of their eyes. It's much easier for them to choose to believe their own rhetoric and pay lip service to the problem than accept the mistakes they've made which have led to the resentment and set about putting them right.
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Old 25-09-2017, 10:02   #15
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Re: Disaster for Merkel?

I'm not sure it's short term political ambitions that are the problem most politicians now across the political spectrum are looking towards globalisation and the trouble is they are too fixated on that big goal and lots of little things are happening unnoticed that will eventually become a big problem at a rapid pace that we won't be ready for. It's why i wanted Trump to win not so much because i like the man i don't but the idea that someone outside of the political bubble would come in and drag the whole disconnected political establishment back to reality and to stop taking citizens for granted. This will be Merkel's last term and I'm sure she's aware of that and for that reason I don't expect her to alter anything at all in any meaningful way.
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