Eurozone will collapse...

[Ramrod]

The EU has no interest in reforming. That isn't in it's DNA. It simply can do that.
It's all or nothing.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by pip08456

You keep pressing this 40% 10% argument ad nauseum.

We export about £220 billion in goods and sercives to the other 27 EU member states but import about £290 billion from them.

You speak of the EU as a whole yet there are EU states that import more form us than they export to us.

Conversly there are those who export more to us and who is the biggest one? Surprise, surprise it's that powerhouse of Europe Germany. Try telling them that they'll only lose 10% of their exports if a deal isn't done. Spain, Belgium, France, Italy and Poland are only a little behind.

That is 6 member states that have a lot to lose and it's nowhere near 10% of their GDP. So yes, if they don't want to deal then hey-ho bye bye.

I do mention them as a group because they are. All 27 member states have to agree to any deal with us, they all have veto.

You are correct when you mention that it's nowhere near 10% of their GDP, so thanks for making that point for me. We're about 7.5% of Germany's total exports, and while their consumption is somewhat low Germans actually do have a domestic economy. The £27 billion surplus they ran with us in trade in 2015 was less than 1.5% of their economy.

The £12 billion Spain ran in surplus about 1.5% of GDP. Belgium's surplus 2.5% of GDP, France's not even 1%.

Exports to us are 3-4% of EU-27s economy. Our exports to them are 12% of our economy. Their economy is considerably larger.

Germany are quite aware of the consequences and seem quite willing to take them, both politicians and trade bodies as they fear the longer term consequences would be far more harmful than a loss of some, it obviously wouldn't be all, trade.

Thankfully it looks like the government, behind the rhetoric, is more pragmatic.

But the claim was strongly denied by Mrs May’s allies. Several ministers told the Financial Times that a transitional trade deal was likely to be a key part of Brexit negotiations that begin next year.

One option being considered is that Britain might continue to pay into EU coffers as an entry fee to the single market during the interim period, pending agreement and ratification of a new trade deal.

We may actually end up running a bigger trade deficit with the EU when all is said and done - a trade deal is likely at least initially to include goods only, not services. We run a >£20 billion a year surplus with the EU on services.

---------- Post added at 21:59 ---------- Previous post was at 21:56 ----------

Originally Posted by Ramrod

The EU has no interest in reforming. That isn't in it's DNA. It simply can do that.
It's all or nothing.

It's a painfully bloated and slow beast, as is predictable with 27 member states all with their own agendas, but it looks as though some movement is happening. Overdue and well needed, too. They've kicked the can down the road to the point where the problems are existential.

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Resolve them how i keep hearing how we should have stayed in reformed from within but no one has come up with a practical how we'd have done that given the EU has shown zero interest in reforming even after the UK votes to leave still not a hint of meaningful reform. The EU has one goal and only oneway to get there and if you don't agree with it tough because there's only oneway how do you even start to attempt reform when that's the attitude.

When the EU collapses because it is a case of when not if it won't be celebrated anywhere as a great many people will suffer because of it and if I'd honestly believed the EU was prepared to reform and adapt to the world we're in I'd have voted remain as i think many others would have. We've had this whole "reform from within" for twenty years and nothing has come from it no changes the progression has continued exactly as the EU always intended.

Voting for brexit wasn't ideal far from it but of the two options it was better then continued membership of a broken organisation completely out of touch with it's citizens. There will be tough times ahead economically although i don't think they will be as tough as some predict and on the day we formally leave the EU some are going to be surprised at the trade deals that will come into play and the opportunities we have available to us.

If the EU is such a fantastic club to be in why are so many countries bankrupt with ever increasing unemployment .If the single market is so brilliant why has our trade to the EU fell year on year since we joined it .It's obvious that the EU does not work for the UK ,it never has .Since we joined the old EEC it has been a fight with Brussels all the way .
We should have listened to France back in the 60's when they vetoed our application to join

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by martyh

We should have listened to France back in the 60's when they vetoed our application to join

Agreed. We never committed to it properly and were every bit as obstructive of the rest of the EU as we perceived they were of us.

I didn't say the EU was a great club nor have i ever stated that and i think you took my post the wrong way i in no way support what the EU has become or the way it conducts itself. I actually believe that the EU is more of a threat to peace then a gaurantor of it and the continued push to expand the EU is dangerous and reckless.

There is no doubt in my mind that the UK will end up significantly more prosperous eventually but there is going to be a period of economic adjustment and harder financial times ahead for many of us. Remaining part of the EU in it's current form wasn't an option for me and the prospect of a united european state in the future definately not something I'd ever consider acceptable. Though the chances of the EU surviving long enough to accomplish that now is highly unlikely i doubt very much that the EU will survive the next twenty years.

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

I didn't say the EU was a great club nor have i ever stated that and i think you took my post the wrong way i in no way support what the EU has become or the way it conducts itself. I actually believe that the EU is more of a threat to peace then a gaurantor of it and the continued push to expand the EU is dangerous and reckless.

There is no doubt in my mind that the UK will end up significantly more prosperous eventually but there is going to be a period of economic adjustment and harder financial times ahead for many of us. Remaining part of the EU in it's current form wasn't an option for me and the prospect of a united european state in the future definately not something I'd ever consider acceptable. Though the chances of the EU surviving long enough to accomplish that now is highly unlikely i doubt very much that the EU will survive the next twenty years.

Apologies Rizzy ,my bad ,i am actually agreeing with you but reading it back i can see how it could be mis interpreted

---------- Post added at 07:04 ---------- Previous post was at 06:59 ----------

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Agreed. We never committed to it properly and were every bit as obstructive of the rest of the EU as we perceived they were of us.

My god something we agree on .The EU is something that must be fully committed to by all sides or it simply doesn't work ,opting out of various bits or demanding special concessions is pointless and very damaging to what should on paper be a good thing

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by martyh

My god something we agree on .The EU is something that must be fully committed to by all sides or it simply doesn't work ,opting out of various bits or demanding special concessions is pointless and very damaging to what should on paper be a good thing

We agree because it's true with decades of evidence backing it up. I hold to my previous view that we shouldn't have moved from EFTA to EEC. I also still hold to the view that if we weren't already in we shouldn't join.

I was, however, intensely naive to impose that as a test or guide to our actions given our current position. That was a mistake, and a fundamental one.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Ramrod

The EU has no interest in reforming. That isn't in it's DNA. It simply can do that.
It's all or nothing.

They tinker around the edges and won't even acknowledge the major flaws in the 'one size fits all' Eurozone, let alone tackle them.

---------- Post added at 09:41 ---------- Previous post was at 09:35 ----------

Originally Posted by martyh

If the EU is such a fantastic club to be in why are so many countries bankrupt with ever increasing unemployment .If the single market is so brilliant why has our trade to the EU fell year on year since we joined it .It's obvious that the EU does not work for the UK ,it never has .Since we joined the old EEC it has been a fight with Brussels all the way .
We should have listened to France back in the 60's when they vetoed our application to join

Yes, the Eurozone is so fantastic that over the last decade and more, huge numbers of Brits have been steadily heading there with nobody wanting to come here...

Still, to be fair, it's not as though the likes of France, Italy, Spain and Germany are having problems is it? Thankfully it's just insignificant minnows like Greece and Portugal who're in trouble and there's no risk of serious contagion at all...



Yes the EU could and should have been a very good thing so just what does it say about those who've run it that they've created a basket case and refuse to accept that even now? With different leadership, a more pragmatic approach and a far more cautious approach to expansion a great many of the problems could have been avoided and we'd all have reaped the benefits.

---------- Post added at 09:48 ---------- Previous post was at 09:41 ----------

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

I didn't say the EU was a great club nor have i ever stated that and i think you took my post the wrong way i in no way support what the EU has become or the way it conducts itself. I actually believe that the EU is more of a threat to peace then a gaurantor of it and the continued push to expand the EU is dangerous and reckless.

There is no doubt in my mind that the UK will end up significantly more prosperous eventually but there is going to be a period of economic adjustment and harder financial times ahead for many of us. Remaining part of the EU in it's current form wasn't an option for me and the prospect of a united european state in the future definately not something I'd ever consider acceptable. Though the chances of the EU surviving long enough to accomplish that now is highly unlikely i doubt very much that the EU will survive the next twenty years.

[Ignitionnet]

In some positive news Deutche Bank's worries seem to be abating a bit, and Citigroup have upgraded Eurozone banks generally.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...-treasury-war/

[Osem]

Appalling austerity and unemployment in parts of the EU are not the EU's fault. Please discuss...

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by Osem

Appalling austerity and unemployment in parts of the EU are not the EU's fault. Please discuss...

Nice try,

Your original post

up, it's not as though the EU is currently a model for success is it. It's lurched from groteseque wine lakes and butter mountains to appalling austerity, huge unemployment,

[Osem]

Nice try?

I know what I've written. It's called putting the ball in your court.

In the Post Brexit thread you asked me why certain problems were the fault of the EU and I've replied there and referred you here so you can find/read my views in more detail if you so wish. I'm now (via the post you quoted above) inviting some meaningful comment from you on why you feel the EU's policies aren't to blame for the problems I cited because you seem to disagree with my sentiments. If you don't wish to discuss it that's fine but I was expecting something other than questions from you at this point.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by Osem

Nice try?

I know what I've written. It's called putting the ball in your court.

In the Post Brexit thread you asked me why certain problems were the fault of the EU and I've replied there and referred you here so you can find/read my views in more detail if you so wish. I'm now (via the post you quoted above) inviting some meaningful comment from you on why you feel the EU's policies aren't to blame for the problems I cited because you seem to disagree with my sentiments. If you don't wish to discuss it that's fine but I was expecting something other than questions from you at this point.

No, what you did was take the original post, misquote and then not post your corrected post.

I digress... To come up with some relevant questions and/or debate give me a while to read through the thread and we can pick up and discuss

[Osem]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

No, what you did was take the original post, misquote and then not post your corrected post.

I digress... To come up with some relevant questions and/or debate give me a while to read through the thread and we can pick up and discuss

I'm sorry, I obviously gave you more credit than was due for being able to follow what was a fairly simple task, albeit with a slight twist due to an addition to my first post which I made as a result of your original reply to it. I thought it clarified matters, in fact it confused you but I thought we'd successfully moved on from there. C'est la vie...

Your view of discussing things seems to involve posing questions without answering any as you've just done again with Martyh in the post Brexit thread. Forgive me if I decline to carry on with that sort of 'discussion'. What I think about the EU's problems is here in some detail, you can disagree as much as you like (we're all entitled to do that) but it's now up to do a lot more than just disagree with opinions and pose questions. How about you come up with the evidence which supports your apparent view that the appalling unemployment and austerity in Europe aren't the fault of the EU for a change? That's why I posted this:

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/sh...postcount=1892

Remember?

Good luck with that anyway.

[Ignitionnet]

Euro 'house of cards' to collapse, warns ECB prophet

The European Central Bank is becoming dangerously over-extended and the whole euro project is unworkable in its current form, the founding architect of the monetary union has warned.

"One day, the house of cards will collapse,” said Professor Otmar Issing, the ECB's first chief economist and a towering figure in the construction of the single currency.

Timely warning about the dangers of politicising central banking. Rules should've been upheld both when Greece and others breached them in one direction and Germany in the other. Needs fixing, the risks are existential.