The Chronicles of Rishi

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by jfman

Today we had stigmatising the disabled, arguing with Ireland about immigration, arguing with France about immigration. I was only waiting on arguing with Argentina over the sovereignty of Las Malvinas and it’d have been a full house on my Tory bullshit bingo card.

You're right the last act would be some sort of conjured up war/conflict.

Invading the Faroe Islands might be the one to go for, 'taking back control of our Cod', a sure vote winner

[1andrew1]

I assume this bad news won't bother Sunak too much as he won't be PM next year"

UK forecast for slowest growth of richest nations next year

The UK economy will see the slowest growth of the largest developed nations next year, according to forecasts.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicted that UK gross domestic product - a key measure of economic health - will rise by 1% in 2025.

This is below the rest of the G7 nations, which include Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US.

The OECD, which is a globally recognised think tank, said the UK economy would be “sluggish” this year.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq5n2d8en8wo

https://news.sky.com/story/politics-...wales-12593360

Boris Johnson was turned away from a polling station when trying to vote in the local elections after forgetting to bring acceptable photo ID.

Sky News understands polling station staff were forced to turn the former prime minister away after he initially failed to comply with legislation he introduced while he was in Downing Street.

Mr Johnson, who introduced the Elections Act requiring photo ID in 2022, was attempting to cast his ballot in South Oxfordshire, where a police and crime commissioner for the Thames Valley is being selected.

tbf, he has form for not complying with laws he initiated…

[Mr K]

It was supposed to suppress the riff raff vote , maybe it has

[denphone]

And more bad news for the Tories as Labour wins Blackpool South by-election.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b2538853.html

Mr Chris Webb won the contest with a crushing majority, gaining 10,825 votes, compared with Mr Jones’s 3,218. And, in an escape that will still leave alarm bells ringing for Mr Sunak, Reform was just 100 votes shy of upsetting the Tories on 3,101.

The result is the third biggest swing toward Labour in by-election history, representing a 26 per cent swing from the 2019 general election. Party sources said it is “much bigger” than the 12.5 per cent national swing needed to win a majority at the next general election.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by denphone

And more bad news for the Tories as Labour wins Blackpool South by-election.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b2538853.html

It didn't get any better for the poor old Tory dears today. Still, at least they still have 'Dishi Rishi'. Sir K will be delighted at that.

When is this Brexit dividend going to deliver? Is it the death of the Tories? If so , quite possibly worth it after all

Originally Posted by Mr K

It didn't get any better for the poor old Tory dears today. Still, at least they still have 'Dishi Rishi'. Sir K will be delighted at that.

When is this Brexit dividend going to deliver? Is it the death of the Tories? If so , quite possibly worth it after all

I think you've missed the Tees Valley Mayoral Election which they held onto by limiting Labour to only a 16 point swing. Although that would wipe out all the Tory MPs in that area it's saved Sunak apparently.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Damien

I think you've missed the Tees Valley Mayoral Election which they held onto by limiting Labour to only a 16 point swing. Although that would wipe out all the Tory MPs in that area it's saved Sunak apparently.

That was the bonus for Sir K

There are rumours tonight of an upset in London though. It's hard to know what to make of them because the polling would have to be way off.

However, the turnout is slightly in Susan Hall's favour. The election has changed to First Past the Post as well so if there has been a good Green showing then there is a chance she might nick it. There are also good reasons to suspect a better Green showing due to the perceived safety of Khan's position in London and the national picture generally in which they've made gains.

Counter to that though is that Labour are in a much stronger position nationally then they were last time as well.

I’d not realised that change had been made to the mayoral election. It seems like a pretty blatant piece of gerrymandering to change the mayor vote (which will undoubtedly benefit the Tories as the lefty vote will be split on first preference between Labour, Green and various other socialist nutters and probably Lib Dem), while not changing the PR system used to constitute the Assembly, which tends to ensure the Tories get representation they wouldn’t have if there were wards with FPTP polls.

Looking at the results on the BBC, while it seems the Consevatives have (as expected) lost out big time, its not been a hugh swing to Labour.
In fact only about 35% on the losses have gone to the reds, the libs, greens & independants have all fared well. I guess in many areas, people didnt want to vote blue, but couldnt bare the thought of red either. Could be an interesting General Election when it comes.

Originally Posted by Chris

I’d not realised that change had been made to the mayoral election. It seems like a pretty blatant piece of gerrymandering to change the mayor vote (which will undoubtedly benefit the Tories as the lefty vote will be split on first preference between Labour, Green and various other socialist nutters and probably Lib Dem), while not changing the PR system used to constitute the Assembly, which tends to ensure the Tories get representation they wouldn’t have if there were wards with FPTP polls.

Yes, and it's making it hard to guess from the turnout if the Tories hope they've won London is based on anything real. We don't know if people who would have put Green first, Labour second, will have voted Labour tactically this time.

I think a lot of people will have looked at the polling and voted for someone else.

Originally Posted by Paul

Looking at the results on the BBC, while it seems the Consevatives have (as expected) lost out big time, its not been a hugh swing to Labour.
In fact only about 35% on the losses have gone to the reds, the libs, greens & independants have all fared well. I guess in many areas, people didnt want to vote blue, but couldnt bare the thought of red either. Could be an interesting General Election when it comes.

It's unlikely that the independents and Lib Dems will do as well in a General Election. I think the Tories are drawing the wrong message from the vote share in the local elections and the media, desperate for a narrative, isn't helping. I saw this Tweet from The Sun on Sunday's political editor: https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/st...21822902173717

This being seized on by Tories

They think they can bridge a 9% gap in the polls

That thing you are hearing is a big sigh of relief in no10

This is complete idiocy and would explain a lot of what's going wrong with the Tories if they're this dumb. The Projected National Share is not a poll or projection of a General Election. It's what they think would happen if everyone voted on Thursday rather than only some of it. It doesn't account for people voting differently in General Elections. Sky is even worse as they've done a seat projection showing Labour falling short of a majority but their model gives the SNP every seat in Scotland as they have no data from there in this election.

You also wonder how many of them reconcile that with the 26-point swing in Blackpool, one of several record swings in the last year.

If the No 10 really think the message to take from this election is they're only 9 points behind Labour and Tees Valley is a sign they're doing well then they're mad.

^this. Not to mention, there were no votes in Scotland on Thursday and it is idiocy of the highest order to use anything that has happened in English councils to predict the totally different dynamic between the SNP and Labour, or the SNP and Tory, that exists here (there are very few places in Scotland, if any, where any parliamentary seat is a straight red-blue fight).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-p...ost_type=share

BBC forecast: Sadiq Khan to be re-elected as London mayor

The BBC's polling expert John Curtice is forecasting that with six of the constituency results now published Sadiq Khan will be re-elected as Mayor of London for an historic third term.

We anticipate that the outcome in terms of votes will approximately be as follows:

Sadiq Khan (LAB) - 43%
Susan Hall (CON) - 33%
This would represent a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2021.

Fifth London region backs Sadiq Khan

Sadiq Khan has just won another area of London and it looks like Labour's mayor could be on his way to re-election.

He won in South West London by 77,011 votes to Tory challenger Susan Hall's 68,856 votes.

That's a swing to Labour of 2.6 percentage points - and the second part of London so far today that has gone from backing the Tories in 2021 to Labour in 2024.

So was the Mayoral Election stolen from Susan Hall, or did she just leave it on the Tube?