Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

[jonbxx]

I'll play...

What kind of deal do we want?

A true free trade agreement - no tariffs or customs declarations needed. Rights of EU citizens in the UK maintained with reciprocal rights for UK citizens abroad. Continued membership of organisations such as European Medicines Agency, European Air Safety Agency, etc.

What kind of deal are we likely to get?

Financial passporting is a red line. I wouldn't be surprised to see tariffs on cars if we subsidise Nissan, etc. to soften the Brexit blow

Current reactions to the Prime Minister invoking Article 50 from the other EU Member States?

I spoke to my German boss and Belgian colleague yesterday. They don't understand why we would do this

Realistic time table, will this be completed before March 30th 2019?

Not a snowballs chance, there will be an interim agreement at best

What key areas should the UK be try to negotiate on and which ones should they avoid?

Financial passporting and citizens rights are critical. If we want to avoid the wrath of Murdoch, Dacre and Desmond, best avoid mentioning anything we would pay for

Business announcements: I.E Will this encourage or drive business away?

It depends on the trade agreement. If we can be like Switzerland or Norway and it's easy to trade with the rest of the EU, then not too big a problem. If there are tariffs, customs checkpoints, etc., this will be a big problem for manufacturing

What should the settlement divorce fee be and should we pay some of it, all of it, or none at all?

We agreed to fund some initiatives, we should pay what we said we would. I would suggest taking a pragmatic approach and offset what we owe against membership of the European organisations like EMA, EASA, etc.

Just my two cents...

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by Kursk

Moving on....I'm interested in the mathemagics that leads the EU to believe we should pay a divorce settlement of £50bn? And despite their 'no cherrypicking' mantras they want this agreed before anything else is discussed.

No chance, sunshine. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

That concludes negotiations because no deal is a deal.

I suggest they start teaching Russian in schools and building lots of permanent shanty camps for their new arrivals.

Since we've paid nett many £100b's into the EU there must be a share of assets that we "own" Perhaps we should demand those back? £50b could pale into insignificance against it.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Since we've paid nett many £100b's into the EU there must be a share of assets that we "own" Perhaps we should demand those back? £50b could pale into insignificance against it.

Some of the funding has gone to support the restructuring of industry in eastern Europe and improvement in roads etc there. Those countries were uncompetitive globally and when opened up to free trade, a lot of those industries closed down. Some of the other funding has gone to fund pan-European regulatory bodies. So from a business angle, some of the £8bn a year we send to Brussels is working capital. But some obviously has been invested in buildings etc.
Ultimately, money talks. I suspect the more the UK is willing to pay, the better a trade deal it will get. Ministers will be asking themselves questions like what is the cost of Japanese car manufacturers staying? £5bn? £10bn? £50bn?
I think money is a better negotiating leaver to play than security or EU citizens' rights to remain.

---------- Post added at 10:14 ---------- Previous post was at 10:05 ----------

Originally Posted by jonbxx

Financial passporting and citizens rights are critical. If we want to avoid the wrath of Murdoch, Dacre and Desmond, best avoid mentioning anything we would pay for.

Financial passporting is very unlikley to happen so the City is relocating parts of its business overseas to continue to serve their EU customers. Ony today, Lloyds of London announced that 100 jobs out of 600 jobs were moving to Brussels.
http://www.standard.co.uk/business/l...-a3502636.html

[Gavin78]

Looks like the EU is starting to get nasty it's their way or no way. They could do with a middle man to over see both side's that is neither for or against either side.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Gavin78

Looks like the EU is starting to get nasty it's their way or no way. They could do with a middle man to over see both side's that is neither for or against either side.

European Courts of Justice? It's not going to be an easy ride and there will be posturing on both sides.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Since we've paid nett many £100b's into the EU there must be a share of assets that we "own" Perhaps we should demand those back? £50b could pale into insignificance against it.

A lot of it comes back to the UK, investing in areas of decline.

Small businesses on Britain’s west coast could be left short if we decide to leave the EU, as they receive more economic aid from Brussels than any other part of the UK. Between 2014 and 2020, both Cornwall and West Wales will receive over €1,000 (£800) per person from the EU Structural and Investment Fund - similar to that received by Romania and Bulgaria.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...-how-does-thi/

This funding will end. I doubt these areas will be a priority of the Tory Government. More tax cuts for their rich mates will be.

I know of farmers who are very concerned about EU payments stopping. The UK govt. has only guaranteed subsidies till 2020, which since we're supposed to be leaving in 2019, isn't much of a guarantee. It's already turning into countryside of empty holiday homes, which few can afford.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by techguyone

It's a claim, there is no way to know which way those who chose not to vote, voted.

Therefore we do not include them.

Here is a Fact.

Leave: 51.9% (generally rounded up to 52%)

Remain: 48.1% (generally rounded down - as less than .5 to 48%)

52 +48 = 100

no 37, 69, 99 or anything else.

Fact

So please, no more claims, what-if's, shoulda-woulda-coulda's it makes you look silly & desperate.

It takes you nowhere, it leads you nowhere, at best I suppose it's a comforter for those who can't bear the fact that the unthinkable - happened. Curse those pesky kids oldsters.

Please, let's get this clear once and for all. This is important as the mandate the PM has to pursue the agreement on how we leave the EU is contingent on the interests of the country as a whole and not the minority who voted to Leave.

The facts are these:

1. The UK voted to leave the EU. That's it. Nothing else was on the Referendum paper put in front of the electorate.
2. 37% of the total electorate voted for the UK to leave the EU. Please see this link if you think I have made this up: http://www.electoralcommission.org.u...nt-information

We need to move on and discuss what are the terms that are in the best interests as the country as a whole and not those that pander to the desires & prejudices of both sides.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Mr K

A lot of it comes back to the UK, investing in areas of decline.

heero-yuy did say net, so presumably he's excluding the sums that are returned to the UK. But he didn't cite a source.
I think the total net figure is about £160bn. Here's a graph of the contributions.
https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-m...ee-55-million/

Originally Posted by Gavin78

Looks like the EU is starting to get nasty it's their way or no way. They could do with a middle man to over see both side's that is neither for or against either side.

The nastiness is expected, but what we need to do, or not do is not look like we need to go cap in hand. The EU position now is to set an example, they don't want other EU member states to follow the UK.

So while it's interesting to note Francois Hollande's response and Angela Merkel's. The French and German Elections are happening this year, we know Hollande is not running again, Angela's open border policy could see her lose. So while these two will be there are at the beginning of the negotiations, the pair of them won't be there (If Merkel loses) towards the latter end of the negotiations.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Please, let's get this clear once and for all. This is important as the mandate the PM has to pursue the agreement on how we leave the EU is contingent on the interests of the country as a whole and not the minority who voted to Leave.

The facts are these:

1. The UK voted to leave the EU. That's it. Nothing else was on the Referendum paper put in front of the electorate.
2. 37% of the total electorate voted for the UK to leave the EU. Please see this link if you think I have made this up: http://www.electoralcommission.org.u...nt-information

We need to move on and discuss what are the terms that are in the best interests as the country as a whole and not those that pander to the desires & prejudices of both sides.

The facts are these from your own link.


Number of local areas declared: 382/382

Remain: 16,141,241 (48.1%)

Leave: 17,410,742 (51.9%)

Total Electorate: 46,500,001

Turnout: 72.2%

Rejected Ballots: 25,359


Your link, your refence material.

Can we please now move on?

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Please, let's get this clear once and for all. This is important as the mandate the PM has to pursue the agreement on how we leave the EU is contingent on the interests of the country as a whole and not the minority who voted to Leave.

The facts are these:

1. The UK voted to leave the EU. That's it. Nothing else was on the Referendum paper put in front of the electorate.
2. 37% of the total electorate voted for the UK to leave the EU. Please see this link if you think I have made this up: http://www.electoralcommission.org.u...nt-information

We need to move on and discuss what are the terms that are in the best interests as the country as a whole and not those that pander to the desires & prejudices of both sides.

which was a larger number than voted remain

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by pip08456

The facts are these from your own link.


Number of local areas declared: 382/382

Remain: 16,141,241 (48.1%)

Leave: 17,410,742 (51.9%)

Total Electorate: 46,500,001

Turnout: 72.2%

Rejected Ballots: 25,359


Your link, your refence material.

Can we please now move on?

This post just nonsense. You have just pasted the content of the link I cited.

The point I am making and it is a point that you and your "colleagues" consistently and deliberately ignore is that only 37% of the Electorate voted to Leave. FACT.

This FACT is vital when discussing the nature of the deal this country aims to achieve for its citizens, yes, all of its citizens.

I am so tired of repeating this FACT but all the while you are in denial then I guess I will have to remind you of the FACTs.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by ianch99

This post just nonsense. You have just pasted the content of the link I cited.

The point I am making and it is a point that you and your "colleagues" consistently and deliberately ignore is that only 37% of the Electorate voted to Leave. FACT.

This FACT is vital when discussing the nature of the deal this country aims to achieve for its citizens, yes, all of its citizens.

I am so tired of repeating this FACT but all the while you are in denial then I guess I will have to remind you of the FACTs.

the FACT is we will get what we are given our input as citizens is pretty much over you aint getting anything special because you backed the loser

[pip08456]

As usual your are incorrect and trying to twist the facts to suit you own agenda. You really need to get over it.

Out of a total of 46,500,001 registered voters 72.2% voted (total 33,577,342),
the majority of those voted leave.

Originally Posted by Mick

The nastiness is expected, but what we need to do, or not do is not look like we need to go cap in hand. The EU position now is to set an example, they don't want other EU member states to follow the UK.

So while it's interesting to note Francois Hollande's response and Angela Merkel's. The French and German Elections are happening this year, we know Hollande is not running again, Angela's open border policy could see her lose. So while these two will be there are at the beginning of the negotiations, the pair of them won't be there (If Merkel loses) towards the latter end of the negotiations.

The current closest contenders to them are very pro-EU though.