Post-Brexit Thread

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Damien

For internal use maybe but it will impact us exporting.

We import many of the intermediate goods we manufacture with and simply don't have the infrastructure to ramp up manufacturing in a decent timescale.

However, there are still a ton of strengths in the economy. There won't be an apocalypse and, if the government do it right, the recession might not be too bad.

To me, the present situation looks a lot like the preparation for the handover of Hong Kong to China in 1997. In 1996, while working for a major global bank, I was involved in a project to transfer trading books from Hong Kong to London. Like many international businesses, we feared that Hong Kong would lose access to international markets once it returned to China, so we wanted to get our business out of there. We were by no means the only business planning to leave. Many people, too, did their best to leave: those with British passports came to the UK, while others went to Singapore. There was a general atmosphere of worry during the five years between the terms of the handover being agreed and the actual return of Hong Kong to China. And it had a dampening effect on Hong Kong's economy.

But we were wrong. Leaving the UK did not end Hong Kong's access to international markets. Nor did it result in the imposition of a repressive Chinese regime, as many feared. In fact, Hong Kong has become both the gateway to the largest market in the world and one of the world's great financial centres in its own right. It remains a lively, cosmopolitan, multi-cultural place. And many of those who left out of fear before 1997 have returned, attracted by Hong Kong's vibrant economy and its key role in the South East Asian marketplace.

Of course, the UK is very different from Hong Kong, and it is leaving rather than joining a major trading bloc. It all could go horribly wrong: the UK could lose large parts of its financial services industry and be unable to develop other industries to compensate. Rather than a vibrant future, it could face years of stagnation and decline. There are no guarantees. But it is entirely possible that, like Hong Kong, once the UK has completely cut the ties, investment could return and the economy start to grow again.

Whatever happens, though, the UK will change fundamentally. I do not know what the UK will look like in thirty years' time. But I am certain it will be little like today. Those who voted for Brexit in the hope of preserving their idea of Britain, preventing "their" culture from being diluted by foreign influences, are in my view doomed to be disappointed. When the UK leaves the EU and faces the world, it will place itself at the mercy of the world, and the world will make of it whatever it chooses. Short of imposing North Korea-style autarky, UK will have little control over this process. "Take back control" is in fact relinquishing control and stepping into the unknown.

Not for a long time has the future been so uncertain. In the short-term, there will be pain. But in the longer-term, the future could be exciting. I did not vote for this, but this is what my compatriots chose, and I accept their decision. So this is what we - collectively - have chosen. Now we must embrace it, fully. For only by committing to our post-Brexit world can we have any hope of making it work. While we hanker after the past, and try to find ways of hanging on to it, we remain condemned to a stagnant future. Risk is life. Let's take some risk.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

No we're not. What about the emerging economies? What about having more trade with the rest of the world like things we can't sell at the moment by starting to manufacture our own stuff like we used to?

Its alright manufacturing your own stuff but its still going to be very hard to compete with companies in the far east Brian where it’s cheaper to manufacture items and ship them to this country as their labour costs and overheads are far cheaper,

---------- Post added at 10:46 ---------- Previous post was at 10:44 ----------

Originally Posted by martyh

The introduction of trade tariffs from a lot of countries could mean that home manufacturing is more viable though.

Somehow l cannot see this government introducing trade tariffs Marty.

Originally Posted by denphone

Somehow l cannot see this government introducing trade tariffs Marty.

of course they will ,they won't have a choice .We will no longer be in the single market

Originally Posted by martyh

of course they will ,they won't have a choice .We will no longer be in the single market

But if we introduce trade tariffs how can we have free trade?

And if we introduce trade tariffs, why won't the countries we want to trade with do the same to us?

Originally Posted by Hugh

But if we introduce trade tariffs how can we have free trade?

I didn't say we could

And if we introduce trade tariffs, why won't the countries we want to trade with do the same to us?

They will

Are you responding to the right person Hugh because your posts aren't making much sense

[Big Brian]

I don't think we want to go down the road of trade tariffs as I don't think the EU will go down that road with us.

The reason we are in this present mess is coz Cameron thought all we had to do was vote and it was a given so they didn't have contingency plans just incase the vote went against him. Now he's ran away it's time to let others do it. Who's your money on for Brexit Minister? It's difficult but I think I'll go for the Gover. Would like to say Boris but can't see it really.

Dominic Rabb but maybe it's Gove.

Well David Davis is the Brexit Secretary. Hardball, methinks.

[ntluser]

Originally Posted by Chris

Well David Davis is the Brexit Secretary. Hardball, methinks.

Interesting. Wasn't he the other candidate for the Conservative Party leadership when David Cameron was elected?

[Stuart]

Bye Bye Gove. I suspect you won't be missed.

[denphone]

He who sticks the dagger in someone else's back has to expect that someday somebody else will come back and do exactly the same to them.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Stuart

Bye Bye Gove. I suspect you won't be missed.

And byb bye Osbourne neither will you!

---------- Post added at 11:16 ---------- Previous post was at 11:15 ----------

Originally Posted by denphone

He who sticks the dagger in someone else's back has to expect that someday somebody else will come back and do exactly the same to them.

Indeed. "Do unto Others as you would have them do unto you!"

---------- Post added at 11:18 ---------- Previous post was at 11:16 ----------

Interesting choice Boris for Foreign Secretary? Thought he'd have been a dead cert for Brexit Minister.

[Ignitionnet]

Theresa has been very clever. Handing the Brexit related jobs to those guys. It goes right, she claims credit for her appointments. It goes wrong, she points out that she delegated to those guys and it's the Brexiteer's fault, not hers.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Theresa has been very clever. Handing the Brexit related jobs to those guys. It goes right, she claims credit for her appointments. It goes wrong, she points out that she delegated to those guys and it's the Brexiteer's fault, not hers.

Indeed. Interest rates stay at .5 of a% but are expected to drop in August so this can only be a good thing too.

I think we have the best 2 possible Diplomats for negotiating out exit from the EU and I'm glad Boris is involved.

[Kursk]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Theresa has been very clever. Handing the Brexit related jobs to those guys. It goes right, she claims credit for her appointments. It goes wrong, she points out that she delegated to those guys and it's the Brexiteer's fault, not hers.

Except none of it would have been possible if the vote had gone the way of her Remain preference. She can thank Leavers for her promotion but the buck stops with her now.

I hope she does well. It is sensible to keep Mr Gove at arm's length (out of striking distance ).