Hamas Israel War

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by ianch99

<SNIP>

Yet again, I have condemned Hamas multiple times but they are not currently killing Israelis by the thousands. Israel, however, are killing Gazans by the thousands hence the ongoing commentary on their actions. It really is quite a basic concept.

I have answered the question before on what I personally think they should have done post Oct 7, as has others, so stop trolling me.
<SNIP>

You have never answered, in this thread, the question of what Israel should have done in response to 7-Oct barbarism by Hamas.

All you've ever said is basically "not this way"; or "considered, measured & surgical". Meaningless words because they impart nothing tangible.

Israel is attacked; Israel responds militarily. Mission: eradicate Hamas.

How should Israel conduct its operation?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

You have never answered, in this thread, the question of what Israel should have done in response to 7-Oct barbarism by Hamas.

All you've ever said is basically "not this way"; or "considered, measured & surgical". Meaningless words because they impart nothing tangible.

Israel is attacked; Israel responds militarily. Mission: eradicate Hamas.

How should Israel conduct its operation?

JFMan explained how and ianch99 said there should be fewer than 500 civilian casualties not the c20k that we're sadly fast approaching. No one's going to give you a military blue print!

Time to move on and answer those timely questions of Sky's:

• Is the military operation in Gaza rendering a Palestinian state politically and geographically impossible?
• How will America now respond to this?
• Israelis and Palestinians can't share power in a single state. So where now?

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

You have never answered, in this thread, the question of what Israel should have done in response to 7-Oct barbarism by Hamas.

All you've ever said is basically "not this way"; or "considered, measured & surgical". Meaningless words because they impart nothing tangible.

Israel is attacked; Israel responds militarily. Mission: eradicate Hamas.

How should Israel conduct its operation?

Any mission, like any Project, needs SMART objectives -

Specific
Measurable
Achievable
Realistic
Timely

Whilst the current Israeli Government mission is

Specific (wipe out Hamas)

it is neither

Measureable (how will they know when they have wiped out Hamas, as the leaders are in Qatar and the ground troops will just merge into the Palestinian population until the next uprising)
Achievable (see above)
Realistic (see above)
Timely (see above)

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Any mission, like any Project, needs SMART objectives -

Specific
Measurable
Achievable
Realistic
Timely

Whilst the current Israeli Government mission is

Specific (wipe out Hamas)

it is neither

Measureable (how will they know when they have wiped out Hamas, as the leaders are in Qatar and the ground troops will just merge into the Palestinian population until the next uprising)
Achievable (see above)
Realistic (see above)
Timely (see above)

I think Seph is being a gentleman about Israel's stated mission and taking it at face value.

In contrast, I'm applying a dollop of critical thinking. I believe Israel's government knows that everything in Hugh's post to be correct but has other objectives with its invasion.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

JFMan explained how and ianch99 said there should be fewer than 500 civilian casualties not the c20k that we're sadly fast approaching. No one's going to give you a military blue print!

Time to move on and answer those timely questions of Sky's:

• Is the military operation in Gaza rendering a Palestinian state politically and geographically impossible?
• How will America now respond to this?
• Israelis and Palestinians can't share power in a single state. So where now?

Seph is basically saying that the ongoing killing & destruction in Gaza is sanctioned by him because he, personally, cannot comprehend any other solution. I am not sure I can help him with this.

To try and answer your questions:

1/ It is getting there. The killing & ethnic cleaning that is starting to emerge in Northern Gaza will not only deliver Hamas, or who ever replaces them, the next cadre of willing jihadists but it will move previously centrist Arabs in the region more towards the extremist Hamas position. This will destabilise the region further. An old testament saying seem apt here: "as you sow, so shall you reap". Israel is baking in more turmoil.

2/ The US is slowly moving towards a ceasefire position but is not there yet it seems. Don't forget the Jewish lobby in the US is a very powerful one and is ignored at your peril if you wish re-election.

3/ You say they can't share power and I suspect you are right. However, people point to the example of South Africa where an apartheid system was dismantled and a single democratic state emerged. Of course the elephant in this room is religion which fuels hatred on both sides. As history tells you, religious authority claimed over lands is tricky to reconcile.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

JFMan explained how and ianch99 said there should be fewer than 500 civilian casualties not the c20k that we're sadly fast approaching. No one's going to give you a military blue print!

Time to move on and answer those timely questions of Sky's:

• Is the military operation in Gaza rendering a Palestinian state politically and geographically impossible?
• How will America now respond to this?
• Israelis and Palestinians can't share power in a single state. So where now?

You're nearly always worth engaging.

I'm dealing here with Ian's constant swerving of a proper answer. I spent a lot of time last night (I'm in Australia atm), reading each one of Ian's posts in this thread - trawling through 75+ pages. He has made quite clear how disgusting Hamas is and agrees that they need to be removed.

But then he, and jfman (a different case, though), can only criticise Israel for the collateral damage that is occurring and cannot answer the question as to how else Israel should be dealing with Hamas. Considered, surgical measures is the best he can offer.

Israel is dealing with a murderous terrorist organisation that has taken things too far. The matter of response is indeed binary, which is why Ian can only come up with not this way responses.

Hamas invades Israel and brutally murder120 Israelis taking 200+ hostage.
Israel retaliates militarily (binary choice).

His answer is Considered, surgical measures; what does that mean? This is armchair nonsense.

Hamas operates from tunnels: Israel has to find the tunnels, get to the tunnels, destroy the tunnels and Hamas within. Where are the tunnels? Under civilian infrastructure.

So we come to [I]surgical[I]: This is probably Ian's code for not bombing the crap out of the civilian infrastructure. What is Ian expecting Measured: House to house fighting will cost Israeli lives on an unacceptable scale in Israel's eyes and Israel doesn't really know where tunnels are. So to considered: Israel tells civilians to leave the North and head South. Which brings us back to surgical: Send the ground forces in to the levelled zone and find the tunnels.

You don't have to be a military strategist to come up with that high level view. It's binary: if Hamas is to be destroyed, they have to be found.

• Is the military operation in Gaza rendering a Palestinian state politically and geographically impossible? I'm glad you say 'politically' because the signs are not good. Unless Likud ditches the Ultras and reaches a political deal with the opposition, the 2-state project cannot be resurrected.
  I don't think the Gaza business is making a Palestinian state impossible; it's the parliamentary makeup in Israel combined with deliberate Israeli settlements being created in West Bank that currently makes Palestine impossible.
  
• How will America now respond to this? Who knows?
  They virtue signal with one mouth and .do the opposite wit their hands because the Jewish vote matters in an elections.
  
• Israelis and Palestinians can't share power in a single state. So where now? Good question. I think Israel has real problems stacked up in front of it, not least kindling of additional terrorism from the West Bank, stoked up by Iran. Again, it's a binary matter (imo); the two sides are now even more incompatible than before.

Real shit is going to happen inside Israel and its West Bank settlements, so I forecast unless there is governmental change and all Israeli settlers in West Bank are pulled out. And the settlers are well armed.


---------- Post added at 19:33 ---------- Previous post was at 19:28 ----------

Originally Posted by ianch99

Seph is basically saying that the ongoing killing & destruction in Gaza is sanctioned by him because he, personally, cannot comprehend any other solution. I am not sure I can help him with this.

To try and answer your questions:

1/ It is getting there. The killing & ethnic cleaning that is starting to emerge in Northern Gaza will not only deliver Hamas, or who ever replaces them, the next cadre of willing jihadists but it will move previously centrist Arabs in the region more towards the extremist Hamas position. This will destabilise the region further. An old testament saying seem apt here: "as you sow, so shall you reap". Israel is baking in more turmoil.

2/ The US is slowly moving towards a ceasefire position but is not there yet it seems. Don't forget the Jewish lobby in the US is a very powerful one and is ignored at your peril if you wish re-election.

3/ You say they can't share power and I suspect you are right. However, people point to the example of South Africa where an apartheid system was dismantled and a single democratic state emerged. Of course the elephant in this room is religion which fuels hatred on both sides. As history tells you, religious authority claimed over lands is tricky to reconcile.

Wow. Something upon which Ian and I agree.

His first sentence is utter tripe. I sanction nothing (as I've said before). Instead, I rationalise it all out and have reached the conclusion (an unanswered question): what else should have Israel done in response to the Hamas attack.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

You're nearly always worth engaging.

I'm dealing here with Ian's constant swerving of a proper answer. I spent a lot of time last night (I'm in Australia atm), reading each one of Ian's posts in this thread - trawling through 75+ pages. He has made quite clear how disgusting Hamas is and agrees that they need to be removed.

But then he, and jfman (a different case, though), can only criticise Israel for the collateral damage that is occurring and cannot answer the question as to how else Israel should be dealing with Hamas. Considered, surgical measures is the best he can offer.

Israel is dealing with a murderous terrorist organisation that has taken things too far. The matter of response is indeed binary, which is why Ian can only come up with not this way responses.

Hamas invades Israel and brutally murder120 Israelis taking 200+ hostage.
Israel retaliates militarily (binary choice).

His answer is Considered, surgical measures; what does that mean? This is armchair nonsense.

Hamas operates from tunnels: Israel has to find the tunnels, get to the tunnels, destroy the tunnels and Hamas within. Where are the tunnels? Under civilian infrastructure.

So we come to [I]surgical[I]: This is probably Ian's code for not bombing the crap out of the civilian infrastructure. What is Ian expecting Measured: House to house fighting will cost Israeli lives on an unacceptable scale in Israel's eyes and Israel doesn't really know where tunnels are. So to considered: Israel tells civilians to leave the North and head South. Which brings us back to surgical: Send the ground forces in to the levelled zone and find the tunnels.

You don't have to be a military strategist to come up with that high level view. It's binary: if Hamas is to be destroyed, they have to be found.




Real shit is going to happen inside Israel and its West Bank settlements, so I forecast unless there is governmental change and all Israeli settlers in West Bank are pulled out. And the settlers are well armed.


---------- Post added at 19:33 ---------- Previous post was at 19:28 ----------



Wow. Something upon which Ian and I agree.

His first sentence is utter tripe. I sanction nothing (as I've said before). Instead, I rationalise it all out and have reached the conclusion (an unanswered question): what else should have Israel done in response to the Hamas attack.

G'Day Seph. You have to realise that detailed military campaign tactics are not really my speciality as, I suspect, neither yours. You complain that I provide no detail however you refuse to even go near the very simple, straightforward question i.e. should Israel keep killing civilians and razing Gaza. It really is that simple. Either they should continue (your implicit position) or they should not.

I came across this article which touches on the alternate approach that could have been considered:

Transforming Counterinsurgent Strategy: Using the Topography of Intelligence

Ultimately, modern technology has succeeded in enabling new intelligence assets and capabilities to trigger a transformation in the character of strategies pursued in defeating insurgencies. The advent of such sequentially-conducted intelligence-based campaigns allows the counterinsurgent to strip away the one piece of protection every insurgent relies upon: the ability to avoid his enemy. With this defence gone, almost any insurgency might be open to destruction as was AQI, provided that the necessary intelligence assets—manpower, hardware and software—are available.

Granted this article is not discussing a direct map to the Gaza situation but it gives enough illumination into an intelligence-led, carefully considered, longer burn of a campaign. Any such approach undoubtedly requires US intelligence & surveillance assets. The use of RF/phone tapping/tracking, drone monitoring, AI-based correlation of record calls to primary assets, RF blackout during surgical ops, etc.

In parallel, you can start economic & other sanctions on countries harbouring Hamas leadership clusters and, failing all, take them out via Special Ops missions like they did with Bin Laden. Just needs a more thoughtful approach as opposed to lobbing JDAMS at civilian housing.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by ianch99

G'Day Seph. You have to realise that detailed military campaign tactics are not really my speciality as, I suspect, neither yours. You complain that I provide no detail however you refuse to even go near the very simple, straightforward question i.e. should Israel keep killing civilians and razing Gaza. It really is that simple. Either they should continue (your implicit position) or they should not.

I came across this article which touches on the alternate approach that could have been considered:

Transforming Counterinsurgent Strategy: Using the Topography of Intelligence


Granted this article is not discussing a direct map to the Gaza situation but it gives enough illumination into an intelligence-led, carefully considered, longer burn of a campaign. Any such approach undoubtedly requires US intelligence & surveillance assets. The use of RF/phone tapping/tracking, drone monitoring, AI-based correlation of record calls to primary assets, RF blackout during surgical ops, etc.

In parallel, you can start economic & other sanctions on countries harbouring Hamas leadership clusters and, failing all, take them out via Special Ops missions like they did with Bin Laden. Just needs a more thoughtful approach as opposed to lobbing JDAMS at civilian housing.

I think that the debate you & I are having all boils down to this.

I've explained in my previous post how Israel must (and did) prosecute this war, certainly in the early days of the retaliation. Then they told civilians to move south, presumably on the understanding that whoever is left will generally be Hamas. Or so it seems to me with a logical eye.

I don't think you should hide behind vague expressions such as just needs a more thoughtful approach (because you're no military strategist). It might be better to concede that Israel had to go in and go in hard with a method that keeps its own troops as safe as possible.

So, given that we agree Hamas must be eliminated, how should that be done in the circumstances of Gaza?

[TheDaddy]

Not sure I can imagine a British General having to stress to his soldiers that people who are unarmed, with their hands in the air must be taken prisoner and not shot

Well friendly fire has always been an issue in war, but this example does seem a bit extreme. Clearly someone was far too trigger happy, forcing the IDF to state it was against their own rules of engagement. Hamas kept them alive, only for them to be shot by their own soldiers. Very bad.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Paul

Well friendly fire has always been an issue in war, but this example does seem a bit extreme. Clearly someone was far too trigger happy, forcing the IDF to state it was against their own rules of engagement. Hamas kept them alive, only for them to be shot by their own soldiers. Very bad.

It's terrible, makes me wonder if this happens routinely as well

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

It's terrible, makes me wonder if this happens routinely as well

Another situation came to light today.

Church deaths a 'cold-blooded killing', cardinal says

An Israeli military sniper shot and killed two women inside the Holy Family Parish in Gaza City on Saturday, according to the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem.

The mother and daughter were walking to the Sister's Convent, the patriarchate said, when gunfire erupted. "One was killed as she tried to carry the other to safety," it added.

"This [happened] within what has been clearly designated as a church place, which I cannot believe for a minute has rocket launchers in it [as Israel claims]," Cardinal Nichols said.

"It's a community that, since October, has sheltered hundreds of people and looked after them," he added.

The news led Pope Francis to condemn Israel, suggesting the country was using "terrorism" tactics in Gaza.

"It's certainly a cold-blooded killing," Cardinal Nichols said.

https://news.sky.com/story/israel-ga...-blog-12978800

[Pierre]

Portray Israel as the true evil, in the region.

Soon Oct 7th will be forgotten, well not soon, it’s already forgotten, and Israel will be forever the occupier, the evil one, the genocider……..we’ll just forget, conveniently, what happened in between.

Not sure reporting factual events is portraying "Israel is the true evil"…

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Not sure reporting factual events is portraying "Israel is the true evil"…

Oct 7th has been forgotten.