Chris

There are too many variables because not everyone is acting entirely rationally. Humza has no tactical awareness whatsoever and seems to have been blindsided by all of this. The Greens, having indicated they were likely to throw a tantrum next month, are shocked - shocked, I tell you - that someone else got there first and properly threw their knitted hemp rattle out of the pram in a way that would make them look even more mental if they do actually vote to save Humza next week. Though, looking even more mental doesn’t seem to be of great concern to the Greens so who knows what will happen.

I think Labour’s interests are served by the chaos regardless of the outcome because all the seats they want to win for Westminster and eventually for Holyrood are presently in SNP hands. Whether they take them now or later is unlikely to be a pressing matter and in any case they might prefer to spread the cost of their campaigning rather than have it all happening this year.