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Originally Posted by Chris
I’d not realised that change had been made to the mayoral election. It seems like a pretty blatant piece of gerrymandering to change the mayor vote (which will undoubtedly benefit the Tories as the lefty vote will be split on first preference between Labour, Green and various other socialist nutters and probably Lib Dem), while not changing the PR system used to constitute the Assembly, which tends to ensure the Tories get representation they wouldn’t have if there were wards with FPTP polls.
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Yes, and it's making it hard to guess from the turnout if the Tories hope they've won London is based on anything real. We don't know if people who would have put Green first, Labour second, will have voted Labour tactically this time.
I think a lot of people will have looked at the polling and voted for someone else.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul
Looking at the results on the BBC, while it seems the Consevatives have (as expected) lost out big time, its not been a hugh swing to Labour.
In fact only about 35% on the losses have gone to the reds, the libs, greens & independants have all fared well. I guess in many areas, people didnt want to vote blue, but couldnt bare the thought of red either. Could be an interesting General Election when it comes.
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It's unlikely that the independents and Lib Dems will do as well in a General Election. I think the Tories are drawing the wrong message from the vote share in the local elections and the media, desperate for a narrative, isn't helping. I saw this Tweet from The Sun on Sunday's political editor:
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/st...21822902173717
Quote:
This being seized on by Tories
They think they can bridge a 9% gap in the polls
That thing you are hearing is a big sigh of relief in no10
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This is complete idiocy and would explain a lot of what's going wrong with the Tories if they're this dumb. The Projected National Share is
not a poll or projection of a General Election. It's what they think would happen if everyone voted on Thursday rather than only some of it. It doesn't account for people voting differently in General Elections. Sky is even worse as they've done a seat projection showing Labour falling short of a majority but their model gives the SNP every seat in Scotland as they have no data from there in this election.
You also wonder how many of them reconcile that with the 26-point swing in Blackpool, one of several record swings in the last year.
If the No 10 really think the message to take from this election is they're only 9 points behind Labour and Tees Valley is a sign they're doing well then they're mad.