Quote:
Originally Posted by RichardCoulter
Looking like Ukrainia won't be allowed to join Nato as, if they did and Russia invaded them, other countries (including us) would be obliged to come to their defence.
For some reason we don't want to do that, either because, even with America, we are not confident in winning any war with Russia or Ukrania is regarded as being worth sacrificing in order to avoid any military conflict ie loss of life etc. I'm not sure which.
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A war between the USA and Russia is a war between two nuclear powers. Such things are avoided carefully. This is why Biden wouldn’t even send an evacuation plane to Kiev in the event of an invasion; if it or its crew were caught even in the crossfire things could escalate badly.
Ironically Ukraine’s membership of NATO is I think more likely now than ever. The Russians arguably already made it easier by occupying Crimea where they have long had a major naval base that, prior to 2014, would have been subject to some very awkward negotiations had Ukraine joined the western alliance. They have also created the very clear impression that Ukraine is at risk of invasion making a mutual defence pact more desirable.
Once Ukraine is in NATO, the military door really is slammed shut on Putin. Western troops move in and risking their lives risks direct confrontation. Again, this is avoided carefully. It’s why the Cold War stayed cold. If Ukraine joins, then Putin is left trying to interfere with the politics of the country so as to bring about a Russian friendly administration that might take it out of NATO again.