Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
The next straw to clutch at is the hospitalisations/death rate vs the delta wave in summer.
In reality the important question is the hospitalisations/death rate vs delta now with increased vaccine coverage.
To present the former and say “see it’s mild” is skewing the evidence for a comforting narrative. The reality is, based on the growth rate, it needs to be significantly milder than delta in November.
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Indeed, Omicron would have to be vastly less lethal to mitigate the ease with which it infects people. It doesn’t matter if only a tiny fraction of its victims get seriously ill if, because it infects them all within a very short time, they all end up in hospital together and we run out of beds. The rate at which we get booster jabs into people is probably more significant here than how lethal omicron may or may not be.
Any comparisons with earlier waves will be interesting in illustrating vaccine effectiveness but ultimately all that really matters in public heath terms is whether our hospitals can continue to function. If it appears that serious illness is going to overwhelm the NHS then back in our boxes we will go.